The Impact of Climate Change on Equatorial Guinea’s Maritime Industry
Equatorial Guinea, located on the west coast of Central Africa, has a small coastline along the Gulf of Guinea. However, the maritime industry plays an important role in the country’s economy. Fishing and shipping industries contribute to economic activity and food security. Changes in climate and sea conditions threaten to disrupt these industries. Rising sea levels, increasing water temperatures, ocean acidification, and extreme weather events are expected to significantly impact coastal infrastructure and marine ecosystems in the coming decades (Fernandes et al., 2017). Equatorial Guinea must assess vulnerabilities and implement adaptive measures to ensure the resilience of the maritime sector.
Rising Sea Levels and Coastal Infrastructure
Global sea levels have risen approximately 8 inches since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating (WCRP, 2021). Higher sea levels increase the risk of storm surge flooding during extreme weather. Low-lying coastal areas in Equatorial Guinea such as Luba, Riaba, and Mbini are particularly vulnerable (Ministerio de Pesca y Medio Ambiente, 2015). An analysis of sea level rise impacts using LiDAR data found that a 1 meter rise in sea level would put over 50 square kilometers of land area at risk of inundation or flooding (Jevrejeva et al., 2016). This includes coastal roads and bridges, port infrastructure, storage facilities, fish processing plants, and residential buildings. Rising sea levels also increase rates of coastal erosion and shoreline recession.
Adapting coastal infrastructure requires elevating critical assets, building seawalls and levees, implementing early warning systems, and relocating some facilities and communities away from high risk areas. A national adaptation strategy should designate priority zones for protection versus managed retreat from the coastline over long time scales.
Changing Ocean Temperatures and Fish Stocks
More than 90% of excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases accumulates in the ocean (WCRP, 2021). Ocean surface temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea have warmed approximately 1°C over the past century, and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone has shifted southward (Ding et al., 2020). This warming trend is expected to continue, though the exact magnitude depends on future emissions scenarios.
Warmer ocean temperatures have a direct impact on the geographic distribution and seasonal timing of both pelagic and coastal fish species (Lam et al., 2020). Key commercial fish such as sardines, mackerel, tuna, grouper, and snapper may shift away from Equatorial Guinea’s exclusive economic zone in the coming decades if warming continues or accelerates (Brunel and Sabatier, 2019). This northward distribution shift poses risks to food security and fishing livelihoods. It also enables the expansion of invasive species into new waters.
Adapting fisheries management may involve seasonal fishing moratoria to protect spawning stock biomass, shift target species over time, satellite tracking of species distribution shifts, ecosystem-based management rather than single species management, expansion of aquaculture production, or economic diversification in coastal communities dependent on fishing (Badjeck et al., 2010). Integrated policy frameworks should aim for climate resilience while supporting sustainable nearshore and offshore fisheries.
Ocean Acidification Impacts
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions lead to increased CO2 absorption and acidity levels in seawater, a process called ocean acidification. Since preindustrial times, the average ocean pH has dropped from 8.2 to 8.1, which represents a 30% increase in acidity on pH scale (WGBU, 2013). By 2100, continued emissions may lower global ocean pH by another 0.2 to 0.4 units compared to today. More acidic seawaters inhibit the growth of coral reefs and calcifying plankton which make up the foundation of marine food webs.
Laboratory studies on species common in the Gulf of Guinea indicate developmental and reproductive impacts from acidified seawater, including impaired larval development and juvenile growth rates (Mumby and Anthony, 2015). The combination of warming seas and acidification could cause a 15-40% decline in primary productivity from microscopic phytoplankton, based on model projections (Bopp et al., 2013). Such a loss of foundational species would ricochet up trophic levels, ultimately harming fisheries catch rates. Further research should continue monitoring coastal pH and organism responses over time. Preparedness options center on reducing emissions and non-climate stressors to marine ecosystems to support their natural resilience.
Extreme Weather Disruptions
Climate change influences extreme weather frequency and severity (Sobel et al., 2016). Though no clear historical trend exists for typhoons and hurricanes in the Gulf of Guinea, most models indicate increased rainfall rates and intensity of strong storms by 2100 (Sharmila and Walsh, 2018). For maritime operations, extreme winds and rainfall can suspend fishing trips, coastal landslides can damage harbors, and floods can inundate roads connecting inland cities to ports. Lightning strikes associated with storm events may also damage electrical and control systems at oil platforms offshore.
The maritime sector should implement early warning protocols, damage prevention measures, and contingency plans. Post-event recovery plans involving both the private and public sectors can build back more resilient infrastructure. Hazard risk assessments should inform upgrades to port and harbor infrastructure, secure storage of fishing vessels during major storms, and potential relocation of facilities outside of risk zones over longer time scales. Reliable weather monitoring and forecast systems tailored to maritime operators are an essential investment.
Conclusion
Rising seas, warming waters, acidification, and extreme storms all threaten Equatorial Guinea’s maritime industries which provide economic and nutritional security. Coastal infrastructure, fishing catch rates, and marine ecosystems are vulnerable to climatic shifts. Adaptive planning today offers resilience benefits over time and prevent avoidable relocation or decline. This requires monitoring environmental changes, assessing site-specific risks, targeting key adaptation priorities, expanding institutional capacity, and integrating climate risks in policy planning. Partnerships between government agencies, coastal developers, fishing operators, and international technical experts can support evidence-based adaptation investments and innovation. With proactive preparation, Equatorial Guinea’s valuable maritime sector can navigate coming changes.
References
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