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Introduction to Administration Science A Modeling and Case Research Method with Spreadsheets

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The McGraw-Hill/Irwin Sequence Operations and Resolution Sciences


Beckman and Rosenfield, Operations, Technique: Competing within the 21st Century, First Version

Benton, Buying and Provide Chain Administration, Second Version

Bowersox, Closs, Cooper, and Bowersox Provide Chain Logistics Administration, Fourth Version

Brown and Hyer, Managing Initiatives: A Crew-Primarily based Method, First Version

Burt, Petcavage, and Pinkerton, Provide Administration, Eighth Version

Cachon and Terwiesch, Matching Provide with Demand: An Intro- duction to Operations Administration, Third Version

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Fitzsimmons and Fitzsimmons, Service Administration: Operations, Technique, Data Expertise, Seventh Version

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Harrison and Samson, Expertise Administration, First Version

Hayen, SAP R/three Enterprise Software program: An Introduction, First Version

Hill, Manufacturing Technique: Textual content & Circumstances, Third Version

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Jacobs and Chase, Operations and Provide Administration, Fourteenth Version

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Larson and Grey, Undertaking Administration: The Managerial Course of, Fifth Version

Leenders, Johnson, Flynn, and Fearon, Buying and Provide Administration, Thirteenth Version

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Olson, Introduction to Data Methods Proj- ect Administration, Second Version

Schroeder, Goldstein, and Rungtusanatham, Operations Administration: Up to date Ideas and Circumstances, Sixth Version

Seppanen, Kumar, and Chandra, Course of Evaluation and Enchancment, First Version

Simchi-Levi, Kaminsky, and Simchi-Levi, Designing and Managing the Provide Chain: Ideas, Methods, Case Research, Third Version

Sterman, Enterprise Dynamics: Methods Considering and Modeling for Advanced World, First Version

Stevenson, Operations Administration, Eleventh Version

Swink, Melnyk, Cooper, and Hartley, Managing Operations Throughout the Provide Chain, Second Version

Thomke, Managing Product and Service Growth: Textual content and Circumstances, First Version

Ulrich and Eppinger, Product Design and Growth, Fourth Version

Zipkin, Foundations of Stock Administration, First Version



Hillier and Hillier, Introduction to Administration Science: A Modeling and Case Research Method with Spreadsheets, Fifth Version

Stevenson and Ozgur, Introduction to Administration Science with Spreadsheets, First Version

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Introduction to Administration Science A Modeling and Case Research Method with Spreadsheets

Fifth Version

Frederick S. Hillier Stanford College

Mark S. Hillier College of Washington

Circumstances developed by

Karl Schmedders College of Zurich

Molly Stephens Quinn, Emanuel, Urquhart & Sullivan, LLP

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Knowledge

Hillier, Frederick S.

Introduction to administration science : modeling and case research strategy with spreadsheets / Frederick S. Hillier, Stanford College, Mark S. Hillier, College of Washington ; circumstances developed by Karl Schmedders, College of Zurich, Molly Stephens, Quinn, Emanuel, Urquhart, Sullivan LLP.—Fifth version. pages cm ISBN 978-Zero-07-802406-1 (alk. paper) 1. Administration science. 2. Operations analysis—Knowledge processing. three. Digital spreadsheets. I. Hillier, Mark S. II. Title. T56.H55 2014 Zero05.54—dc23 2012035364

The Web addresses listed within the textual content have been correct on the time of publication. The inclusion of an internet site doesn’t point out an endorsement by the authors or McGraw-Hill, and McGraw-Hill doesn’t assure the accuracy of the data introduced at these websites.

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To the reminiscence of

Christine Phillips Hillier a beloved spouse and daughter-in-law

Gerald J. Lieberman an admired mentor and one of many true giants

of our area

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Concerning the Authors Frederick S. Hillier is professor emeritus of operations analysis at Stanford College. Dr. Hillier is very identified for his traditional, award-winning textual content, Introduction to Operations Analysis, co-authored with the late Gerald J. Lieberman, which has been translated into effectively over a dozen languages and is presently in its ninth version. The sixth version gained honorable men- tion for the 1995 Lanchester Prize (greatest English-language publication of any sort within the area) and Dr. Hillier additionally was awarded the 2004 INFORMS Expository Writing Award for the eighth version. His different books embrace The Analysis of Dangerous Interrelated Investments, Queueing Tables and Graphs, Introduction to Stochastic Fashions in Operations Analysis, and Introduc- tion to Mathematical Programming. He acquired his BS in industrial engineering and doctorate specializing in operations analysis and administration science from Stanford College. The winner of many awards in highschool and faculty for writing, arithmetic, debate, and music, he ranked first in his undergraduate engineering class and was awarded three nationwide fel- lowships (Nationwide Science Basis, Tau Beta Pi, and Danforth) for graduate research. After receiving his PhD diploma, he joined the college of Stanford College, the place he earned tenure on the age of 28 and the rank of full professor at 32. Dr. Hillier’s analysis has prolonged into a wide range of areas, together with integer programming, queueing principle and its software, statistical high quality management, and manufacturing and operations administration. He additionally has gained a serious prize for analysis in capital budgeting. Twice elected a nationwide officer societies, he has served in lots of necessary skilled and editorial capacities. For instance, he served The Institute of Administration Sciences as vp for conferences, chairman of the publications committee, affiliate editor of Administration Science, and co-general chairman of an interna- tional convention in Japan. He is also a Fellow of the Institute for Operations Analysis and the Administration Sciences (INFORMS). He presently is constant to function the founding collection editor for a outstanding e book collection, the Worldwide Sequence in Operations Analysis and Man- agement Science, for Springer Science 1 Enterprise Media. He has had visiting appointments at Cornell College, the Graduate Faculty of Industrial Administration of Carnegie-Mellon Uni- versity, the Technical College of Denmark, the College of Canterbury (New Zealand), and the Choose Institute of Administration Research on the College of Cambridge (England).

Mark S. Hillier, son of Fred Hillier, is affiliate professor of quantitative strategies on the Michael G. Foster Faculty of Enterprise on the College of Washington. Dr. Hillier acquired his BS in engineering (plus a focus in pc science) from Swarthmore Faculty. He then acquired his MS with distinction in operations analysis and PhD in industrial engi- neering and engineering administration from Stanford College. As an undergraduate, he gained the McCabe Award for rating first in his engineering class, gained election to Phi Beta Kappa based mostly on his work in arithmetic, set college data on the boys’s swim group, and was awarded two nationwide fellowships (Nationwide Science Basis and Tau Beta Pi) for gradu- ate research. Throughout that point, he additionally developed a complete software program tutorial package deal, OR Courseware, for the Hillier–Lieberman textbook, Introduction to Operations Analysis. As a graduate scholar, he taught a PhD-level seminar in operations administration at Stanford and gained a nationwide prize for work based mostly on his PhD dissertation. On the College of Wash- ington, he presently teaches programs in administration science and spreadsheet modeling. He has gained a number of MBA educating awards for the core course in administration science and his elective course in spreadsheet modeling, in addition to a universitywide educating award for his work in educating undergraduate lessons in operations administration. He was chosen by MBA college students in 2007 because the winner of the celebrated PACCAR award for Instructor of the Yr (reputed to offer the biggest financial award for MBA educating within the nation). He additionally has been awarded an appointment to the Evert McCabe Endowed College Fellowship. His analysis pursuits embrace points in part commonality, stock, manufacturing, and the design of manufacturing programs. A paper by Dr. Hillier on part commonality gained an award for greatest paper of 2000–2001 in IIE Transactions. He presently is principal investigator on a grant from the Invoice and Melinda Gates Basis to guide scholar analysis tasks that apply spreadsheet modeling to varied points in international well being being studied by the inspiration.

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Concerning the Case Writers Karl Schmedders is professor of quantitative enterprise administration on the College of Zurich in Switzerland and a visiting affiliate professor on the Kellogg Faculty of Man- agement of Northwestern College. His analysis pursuits embrace administration science, monetary economics, and computational economics and finance. In 2003, a paper by Dr. Schmedders acquired a nomination for the Smith-Breeden Prize for one of the best paper within the Jour- nal of Finance. He acquired his PhD in operations analysis from Stanford College, the place he taught each undergraduate and graduate lessons in administration science, together with a case research course. He acquired a number of educating awards at Stanford, together with the university- large Walter J. Gores Instructing Award. After a post-doc on the Hoover Establishment, a suppose tank on the Stanford campus, he turned assistant professor of managerial economics and choice sciences on the Kellogg Faculty. He was promoted to affiliate professor in 2001 and acquired tenure in 2005. In 2008 he joined the College of Zurich, the place he presently teaches programs in administration science, spreadsheet modeling, and computational economics and finance. At Kellogg he acquired a number of educating awards, together with the L. G. Lavengood Professor of the Yr Award. Most lately he gained one of the best professor award of the Kellogg Faculty’s Euro- pean EMBA program (2008, 2009, and 2011) and its Miami EMBA program (2011).

Molly Stephens is a accomplice within the Los Angeles workplace of Quinn, Emanuel, Urquhart & Sullivan, LLP. She graduated from Stanford with a BS in industrial engineering and an MS in operations analysis. Ms. Stephens taught public talking in Stanford’s Faculty of Engineer- ing and served as a educating assistant for a case research course in administration science. As a educating assistant, she analyzed administration science issues encountered in the actual world and reworked these into classroom case research. Her analysis was rewarded when she gained an undergraduate analysis grant from Stanford to proceed her work and was invited to talk at INFORMS to current her conclusions relating to profitable classroom case research. Observe- ing commencement, Ms. Stephens labored at Andersen Consulting as a programs integrator, expe- riencing actual circumstances from the within, earlier than resuming her graduate research to earn a JD diploma with honors from the College of Texas Faculty of Regulation at Austin. She is a accomplice within the largest regulation agency in the US devoted solely to enterprise litigation, the place her follow focuses on advanced monetary and securities litigation.

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Preface Now we have lengthy been involved that conventional administration science textbooks haven’t taken one of the best strategy in introducing enterprise college students to this thrilling area. Our aim when ini- tially growing this e book through the late 1990s was to interrupt out of the previous mould and current new and progressive methods of educating administration science extra successfully. Now we have been gratified by the favorable response to our efforts. Many reviewers and different customers of the primary 4 editions of the e book have expressed appreciation for its numerous distinctive options, in addition to for its clear presentation at simply the proper stage for his or her enterprise college students.

Our aim for this fifth version has been to construct on the strengths of the primary 4 editions. Co-author Mark Hillier has gained a number of schoolwide educating awards for his spreadsheet mod- eling and administration science programs on the College of Washington whereas utilizing the primary 4 editions, and this expertise has led to many enhancements within the present version. We additionally integrated many consumer feedback and solutions. All through this course of, we took painstaking care to boost the standard of the previous version whereas sustaining the distinc- tive orientation of the e book.

This distinctive orientation is one which intently follows the suggestions within the 1996 report of the working subcommittee of the INFORMS Enterprise Faculty Schooling Process Pressure, together with the next extract.

There may be clear proof that there have to be a serious change within the character of the (introductory administration science) course on this atmosphere. There may be little persistence with programs centered on algorithms. As a substitute, the demand is for programs that target enterprise conditions, embrace outstanding non-mathematical points, use spreadsheets, and contain mannequin formulation and evaluation greater than mannequin structuring. Such a course requires new educating supplies.

This e book is designed to offer the educating supplies for such a course. According to the suggestions of this process pressure, we consider trendy introductory

administration science textbook ought to have three key parts. As summarized within the subtitle of this e book, these parts are a modeling and case research strategy with spreadsheets.

SPREADSHEETS The fashionable strategy to the educating of administration science clearly is to make use of spreadsheets as a major medium of instruction. Each enterprise college students and managers now dwell with spreadsheets, so they supply a cushty and pleasurable studying atmosphere. Trendy spreadsheet software program, together with Microsoft Excel used on this e book, now can be utilized to do actual administration science. For student-scale fashions (which embrace many sensible real-world fashions), spreadsheets are a a lot better manner of implementing administration science fashions than conventional algebraic solvers. Which means the algebraic curtain that was so prevalent in conventional administration science programs and textbooks now may be lifted.

Nonetheless, with the brand new enthusiasm for spreadsheets, there’s a hazard of going over- board. Spreadsheets should not the one great tool for performing administration science analy- ses. Occasional modest use of algebraic and graphical analyses nonetheless have their place and we might be doing a disservice to the scholars by not growing their expertise in these areas when applicable. Moreover, the e book shouldn’t be primarily a spreadsheet cookbook that focuses largely on spreadsheet mechanics. Spreadsheets are a way to an finish, not an finish in themselves.

A MODELING APPROACH This brings us to the second key function of the e book, a modeling strategy. Mannequin formula- tion lies on the coronary heart of administration science methodology. Due to this fact, we closely emphasize the artwork of mannequin formulation, the function of a mannequin, and the evaluation of mannequin outcomes. We pri- marily (however not solely) use a spreadsheet format quite than algebra for formulating and presenting a mannequin.

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Preface ix

Some instructors have a few years of expertise in educating modeling by way of for- mulating algebraic fashions (or what the INFORMS Process Pressure known as “mannequin structuring”). A few of these instructors really feel that college students ought to do their modeling on this manner after which switch the mannequin to a spreadsheet merely to make use of the Excel Solver to resolve the mannequin. We dis- agree with this strategy. Our expertise (and the expertise reported by many others) is that almost all enterprise college students discover it extra pure and cozy to do their modeling instantly in a spreadsheet. Moreover, by utilizing one of the best spreadsheet modeling methods (as introduced on this version), formulating a spreadsheet mannequin tends to be significantly extra environment friendly and clear than formulating an algebraic mannequin. One other profit is that the spreadsheet mannequin consists of all of the relationships that may be expressed in an algebraic type and we regularly will summarize the mannequin on this format as effectively.

One other break from custom on this e book (and a number of other modern textbooks) is to just about ignore the algorithms which are used to resolve the fashions. We really feel that there isn’t a good purpose why typical enterprise college students ought to be taught the small print of algorithms executed by computer systems. Throughout the time constraints of a one-term administration science course, there are way more necessary classes to be discovered. Due to this fact, the main target on this e book is on what we consider are these way more necessary classes. Excessive on this listing is the artwork of modeling managerial issues on a spreadsheet.

Formulating a spreadsheet mannequin of an actual downside usually entails rather more than designing the spreadsheet and getting into the information. Due to this fact, we work by the method step-by-step: perceive the unstructured downside, verbally develop some construction for the issue, collect the information, categorical the relationships in quantitative phrases, after which lay out the spreadsheet mannequin. The structured strategy highlights the everyday parts of the mannequin (the information, the choices to be made, the constraints, and the measure of efficiency) and the various kinds of spreadsheet cells used for every. Consequently, the emphasis is on the mod- eling quite than spreadsheet mechanics.

A CASE STUDIES APPROACH Nonetheless, all this nonetheless could be fairly sterile if we merely introduced an extended collection of temporary examples with their spreadsheet formulations. This results in the third key function of this e book—a case research strategy. Along with examples, practically each chapter consists of one or two case research patterned after precise functions to convey the entire technique of making use of administration science. In just a few situations, all the chapter revolves round a case research. By drawing the coed into the story, now we have designed every case research to carry that chapter’s method to life in a context that vividly illustrates the relevance of the method for aiding managerial choice making. This storytelling, case-centered strategy ought to make the mate- rial extra pleasurable and stimulating whereas additionally conveying the sensible issues which are key elements in making use of administration science.

Now we have been happy to have a number of reviewers of the primary 4 editions categorical explicit appreciation for our case research strategy. Although this strategy has acquired little use in different administration science textbooks, we really feel that it’s a actual key to getting ready college students for the sensible software of administration science in all its features. A few of the reviewers have highlighted the effectiveness of the dialogue/state of affairs enactment strategy utilized in among the case research. Though unconventional, this strategy gives a manner of demonstrating the method of managerial choice making with the assistance of administration science. It additionally allows previewing some key ideas within the language of administration.

Each chapter additionally comprises full-fledged circumstances following the issues on the finish of the chapter. These circumstances often proceed to make use of a stimulating storytelling strategy, to allow them to be assigned as fascinating and difficult tasks. Most of those circumstances have been developed collectively by two gifted case writers, Karl Schmedders (a school member on the College of Zurich in Switzerland) and Molly Stephens (previously a administration science advisor with Andersen Consulting). The authors even have added some circumstances, together with a number of shorter ones. As well as, the College of Western Ontario Ivey Faculty of Enterprise (the second-largest producer of educating circumstances on the earth) has specifically chosen circumstances from their case assortment that match the chapters on this textbook. These circumstances can be found on

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x Preface

the Ivey web site, , within the phase of the CaseMate space designated for this e book. This web site handle is offered on the finish of every chapter as effectively.

We’re, after all, not the primary to include any of those key options right into a administration science textbook. Nonetheless, we consider that the e book presently is exclusive in the best way that it absolutely incorporates all three key options collectively.

OTHER SPECIAL FEATURES We additionally ought to point out some extra particular options of the e book which are continued from the fourth version.

• Numerous examples, issues, and circumstances convey the pervasive relevance of administration science.

• A robust managerial perspective. • Studying targets originally of every chapter. • Quite a few margin notes that make clear and spotlight key factors. • Excel ideas interspersed among the many margin notes. • Assessment questions on the finish of every part. • A glossary on the finish of every chapter. • Partial solutions to chose issues behind the e book. • Supplementary textual content materials on the CD-ROM (as recognized within the desk of contents). • An Excel-based software program package deal (MS Courseware) on the CD-ROM and web site that

consists of many add-ins, templates, and recordsdata (described under). • Different useful dietary supplements on the CD-ROM and web site (described later).

A NEW SOFTWARE PACKAGE This version continues to combine Excel 2010 and its Solver (a product of Frontline Methods) all through the e book. Nonetheless, we’re excited to additionally add to this version a formidable more moderen product of Frontline Methods known as Danger Solver Platform for Schooling (or RSPE for brief). RSPE is also an Excel add-in and its Solver shares among the options of the Excel Solver. Nonetheless, along with offering all the important thing capabilities of the Excel Solver, RSPE provides some main new functionalities as outlined under:

• A extra interactive consumer interface, with the mannequin parameters at all times seen alongside the principle spreadsheet, quite than solely within the Solver dialog field.

• Parameter evaluation reviews that present a straightforward method to see the impact of various information in a mannequin in a scientific manner.

• A mannequin evaluation instrument that reveals the traits of a mannequin (e.g., whether or not it’s linear or nonlinear, clean or nonsmooth).

• Instruments to construct and clear up choice bushes inside a spreadsheet. • The power to construct and run subtle Monte Carlo simulation fashions. • An interactive simulation mode that enables simulation outcomes to be proven immediately when-

ever a change is made to a simulation mannequin. • The RSPE Solver can be utilized together with pc simulation to carry out simu-

lation optimization.

A CONTINUING FOCUS ON EXCEL AND ITS SOLVER As with all of the previous editions, this version continues to deal with spreadsheet modeling in an Excel format. Though it lacks among the functionalities of RSPE, the Excel Solver continues to offer a very passable manner of fixing many of the spreadsheet fashions encountered on this e book. This version continues to function this use of the Excel Solver when- ever both it or the RSPE Solver could possibly be used.

Many instructors want this focus as a result of it avoids introducing different issues that may confuse their college students. We agree.

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Preface xi

Nonetheless, the important thing benefit of introducing RSPE on this version is that it gives an all-in- one complement to the Excel Solver. There are some necessary subjects within the e book (together with choice evaluation and pc simulation) the place the Excel Solver lacks the functionalities wanted to cope with these sorts of issues. A number of Excel add-ins—Solver Desk, Tree- Plan, SensIt, RiskSim, Crystal Ball, and OptQuest (a module of Crystal Ball)—have been intro- duced in earlier editions to offer the wanted functionalities. RSPE alone now replaces all of those add-ins.

OTHER SOFTWARE Every version of this e book has offered a complete Excel-based software program package deal known as MS Courseware on the CD-ROM and web site. RSPE replaces numerous Excel add-ins on this package deal. In any other case, the rest of this package deal is being offered once more with the present version.

This package deal consists of Excel recordsdata that present the dwell spreadsheets for all the assorted examples and case research all through the e book. Along with additional investigating the exam- ples and case research, these spreadsheets can be utilized by both the coed or teacher as tem- plates to formulate and clear up related issues. The package deal additionally consists of dozens of Excel templates for fixing numerous fashions within the e book.

MS Courseware consists of extra software program as effectively.

• Interactive Administration Science Modules for interactively exploring sure manage- ment science methods in depth (together with methods introduced in Chapters 1, 2, 5, 10, 11, 12, and 18).

• Queueing Simulator for performing pc simulations of queueing programs (utilized in Chapter 12).

NEW FEATURES IN THIS EDITION Now we have made some necessary enhancements to the fifth version.

• A Substantial Revision of Chapter 1. Along with some updates and a brand new end-of- chapter case, the instance on the coronary heart of the chapter has been modernized to higher appeal to the curiosity of the scholars. The instance now offers with iWatches as an alternative of grandfather clocks.

• A New Part Introduces …

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